Each year, the entertainment industry comes together for the most prestigious night of the year - The Academy Awards. This show honors the best of this year's films, actors, actresses, and directors, and gives the winners a faceless gold statue and the right to legally change their name to "Academy Award winner _________" - until their eventual downward spiral in the form of a buddy cop movie (not cool, Robert DeNiro).
This Sunday, February 26th, marks the 89th annual Academy Awards, and the roster of excellent films and talented performers is going to make the Academy's decisions incredibly difficult. But Jetlore is here to help!
Movies, performers, and directors are like anything else, in the sense they can be broken down and analyzed by their descriptive attributes. Ultimately the winners are chosen based on the individual attributes of each film and performer combined with the Academy's preferences and tastes.
For the 89th Annual Academy Awards, Jetlore is lending our patent pending learning-to-rank engine to the Academy. Below are our predictions for the 2017 winners in the top 4 categories (Best picture, best actor, best actress, best director) based on semantic attributes (green attribute more likely to lead to win; red attribute less likely to lead to win; blue attributes have no effect):
The most important attributes of this category based on past Best Picture winners are the overall ratings, tone, genre, status at the Golden Globes, and the cast. This year, a tremendous amount of excellent films were released, and the top three films going into the Oscars are Moonlight, Manchester By The Sea and La La Land.
With the exception of The Artist, the tone of every Best Picture winner for the last 17 years could be accurately described as "somber." While a great film, La La Land will not win due to it's genre (musical) and upbeat tone (by comparison).
Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight share several important attributes in their tone and critical reception. Moonlight is the honest portrayal of a man's life and hardships and nails the somber tone, but Manchester by the Sea is a 'kick the chair out of from under you'-type somber, which the Academy likes to reward.
Jetlore pick: Manchester By The Sea
Leonardo DiCaprio has only won Best Actor once. ONCE. (Did you see The Departed?!)
Despite the fact that this category is RIGGED, past winners often go through some sort of intense training, learn a new skill, or suffer through an intense hardship for the sake of the film. For instance, Leonardo DiCaprio lived in the wilderness of Alberta, Canada for months while filming The Revenant, suffering through miserable, freezing conditions without cell phone reception. If that's not dedication, we don't know what is.
Leo isn't the only example either: Daniel Day Lewis is infamous for his insane theatrical transformations, and his shenanigans have won him 3 Oscars. Matthew McConaughey dropped a dangerous amount of weight for Dallas Buyers Club. The list goes on!
While all of the actors in this category gave excellent performances, the only actor that truly dedicated himself to his role in this way and fulfills that attribute is Ryan Gosling, who actually sings and dances throughout La La Land, and taught himself how to play Jazz piano for the sake of the film.
Jetlore pick: That beautiful Canadian, Ryan Gosling
The most important attribute the majority of past nominees in this category share is being named Meryl Streep. Meryl Streep has been nominated for 20 Academy Awards and won three, so we would not recommend betting against her and her performance in Florence Foster Jenkins.
However; the past several "best actress" winners have all been in roles that were a little bit darker. Room, Still Alice, and Blue Jasmine are all examples of dark films that produced Best Actress Picks.
With that in mind, Florence Foster Jenkins is too upbeat. And even though Isabelle Huppert's film is darker, and infinitely more artistic because it's French, we believe this is Emma Stone's Ann Hathaway moment and her performance in La La Land will lock in the win.
Jetlore Pick: Emma Stone
Martin Scorsese has only won Best Director once. ONCE. (Did you see The Departed?!)
This category is not quite as rigged as Best Actor, but Best Director winners are able to bring something completely different and new to the category.
Damien Chazelle wrote and directed La La Land, a critically acclaimed musical that everyone loves, despite the fact that no one can stand watching musicals. There's no way he won't win best director.
Jetlore Pick: Damien Chazelle
The ability to accurately predict these winners (re-read this post next week, I dare you) comes from the analysis of each nominee's descriptive attributes combined with knowledge of the Academy's judging criteria. As I continue to learn about the Academy's preferences and the specifics of what they look for in a performance, my predictions will only get better and better.
Time for the big M. Night Shyamalan twist! This entire post was a thinly veiled analogy for the basics of Jetlore's Prediction Platform! To learn more about our ability to take semantic attributes and an understanding of preference to predict the best content for each user, go to www.jetlore.com.
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